South Asia

Assessment of South Asian regional security, India–Pakistan relations, Afghanistan stability, regional diplomacy, and cross-border security challenges.

Global Turbulence and the Testing of BRICS 2026: India’s Balancing Act at Bharat Mandapam

The international environment has deteriorated rapidly. The Russia-Ukraine war continues; the US-Israel-Iran confrontation has transformed West Asian security and energy calculations; the threat of punitive US tariffs against countries purchasing Russian energy directly affects major BRICS economies; and the India-China relationship is simultaneously showing cautious signs of stabilisation after years of tension.

The forthcoming Modi-Putin meeting adds another important dimension. The Russian President is expected in New Delhi ahead of the Summit, with defence, energy, trade and technology among the issues attracting attention. The meeting comes at a time when India is under pressure over its continued engagement with Russian energy while simultaneously seeking to preserve its wider strategic partnerships.

Iran will also enter the BRICS discussion with expectations that India will go beyond general expressions of concern and support a stronger collective response to the US-Israeli military campaign. Tehran has already urged BRICS members to explicitly condemn what it describes as US-Israeli aggression.

Yet this is precisely where India's balancing challenge becomes acute. The BRICS table also includes Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose security calculations have been profoundly affected by the conflict and by Iranian attacks on Gulf states and shipping. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have strongly condemned Iranian attacks and asserted their right to defend their sovereignty and security.

Thus, unlike a conventional alliance, BRICS cannot simply adopt one member's geopolitical narrative. The same organisation contains countries seeking condemnation of US-Israeli action, countries directly exposed to Iranian military action, Russia seeking relief from Western pressure, China pursuing a larger role in an emerging alternative architecture, and India seeking strategic autonomy without bloc confrontation.

The SCO Summit has already provided India with a useful diplomatic template. Its handling of the Iran crisis demonstrated that a diverse grouping can register opposition to military action and reaffirm multipolarity while leaving room for individual members to maintain their own strategic relationships. The BRICS challenge, however, is more complex because its expanded membership has imported sharper regional and geopolitical contradictions.

The following analysis examines whether India's calibrated activism can convert this turbulence into greater BRICS cohesion—or whether the very forces that have increased BRICS's geopolitical importance will expose its internal limits.

The test at Bharat Mandapam is therefore larger than another summit declaration. It is a test of whether India can help BRICS become what it should be: non-Western, but not anti-Western; strategically autonomous, but not strategically confrontational; and increasingly capable of converting the aspirations of the Global South into practical institutional outcomes.

The Mecca Pact: Birth of a New Sunni Security Architecture — Strategic Challenge for India

On 7 August 2026, in the presence of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the Mecca (Makkah) Joint Defence Agreement, a trilateral collective-defence compact declaring that an armed attack on any one of the three shall be treated as an attack on all. This is not a spontaneous diplomatic flourish. It builds on the September 2025 bilateral Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, now widened to bring in Turkey's NATO-integrated military machine and its formidable defence-industrial base, chiefly Baykar's drone ecosystem and the KAAN fighter programme. What has emerged is a framework anchored in collective deterrence, joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, defence-industrial cooperation and interoperability — an arrangement its own architects describe, cautiously, as "purely defensive" and open to future members, but conspicuously silent on any nuclear dimension in its public text.

This pact is less a finished alliance and more a strategic hedge (necessitated by gross insecurity of Saudi Arabia in ongoing war in West Asia) — three states insuring against uncertainty by pooling reputational and military weight, without yet building the institutional scaffolding that would make the guarantee credible like NATO (which itself is undergoing credibility crisis).

“For New Delhi, the issue is not whether India is a target of the pact. The more consequential question is whether Pakistan's strategic weight in Riyadh and Ankara will increase sufficiently to alter the diplomatic environment in which India manages Kashmir, counter-terrorism and its expanding Gulf partnerships.” -Dr Asthana

BRICS LOGO, MEA, India

BRICS at Twenty: India’s Moment to Turn Aspiration into Architecture

BRICS enters its third decade at a moment when the international order is undergoing profound strategic transformation. Its expanded membership gives the grouping unprecedented demographic, economic and geopolitical weight—but also exposes deep internal contradictions. As India assumes the BRICS Chairmanship in 2026, I share an analysis whether New Delhi can convert this diversity into practical cooperation, strengthen the voice of the Global South and help build a more representative multipolar order—without turning BRICS into an anti-Western coalition. There is still one month for the Summit and events do seem to be moving fast in optimistic and challenging side before India sets the stage for the Summit.

Is Pakistan Imploding? Can US and China Afford to Let It Fail?

Pakistan is not collapsing overnight—it is imploding in slow motion.

Despite economic bankruptcy, insurgencies, political repression and institutional decay, Islamabad continues to attract extraordinary support from Washington, Beijing and Gulf capitals.

Why?

Because Pakistan has mastered the art of remaining strategically indispensable even while becoming economically unsustainable.

Pakistan presents one of the greatest strategic paradoxes of modern geopolitics. A state battling insurgencies, mounting debt, shrinking democratic space and deep economic distress continues to command disproportionate global attention. This article analyses why the United States, China and Gulf states continue investing in Pakistan's survival, why these interventions cannot reform its structural weaknesses, and what India's long-term strategic response should be.

This analysis explains why the world's major powers keep rescuing Pakistan, why those rescues cannot solve its structural problems, and what lessons India must draw from Pakistan's paradox.

Pakistan Paradox, An Imperfect Partition : A Nuclear State at War with its Neighbours, its Periphery and Itself

Seventy-nine years after Partition, Pakistan remains trapped in a cycle of geopolitical confrontation, domestic instability and economic dependence. While headlines focus on Taliban attacks, unrest in Pakistan-occupied Jammu & Kashmir, Baloch insurgency or repeated IMF bailouts, these are symptoms rather than causes.

This article argues that Pakistan's enduring instability originates in the hurried colonial partition of 1947, compounded by decades of military dominance, proxy warfare and great-power patronage. It analyses the evolution of Pakistan's security doctrine, its changing relationship with the Taliban, internal fault lines, Cold War legacies and the country's strategic relevance in an emerging multipolar world.

Rather than viewing these crises separately, this article presents them as interconnected outcomes of a state whose foundational contradictions remain unresolved.

Balancing the Eurasian Giant: India’s Strategic Role in Strengthening SCO Military & Security Cooperation

Bridging the Divide in a Multipolar World

“India has good relations with Western countries and is uniquely placed to act as a bridge between SCO and the West” — Major General Dr. S B Asthana

As global governance institutions experience a profound drop in credibility, the geopolitical center of gravity is shifting rapidly toward localized regional alternatives. Covering over 42% of the global population and nearly one-third of the world’s GDP, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) stands as a massive Eurasian bloc navigating the dangerous currents of "Cold War 2.0". Yet, can an organization containing four nuclear-armed powers, deep internal political rivalries, and structural decision-making vulnerabilities truly evolve into a cohesive security alliance?

How can a bloc divided by ideological friction and historical rivalries achieve genuine military and security cohesion? In this insightful analysis, Major General Dr. S B Asthana explores the structural hurdles of the SCO and outlines India's strategic vision for a secure, technologically integrated, and stable Eurasian future. This chapter, titled “Strengthening Military and Security Cooperation in the SCO: An Indian Perspective,” is featured in the seminal volume Reimagining Regionalism: Geopolitical Shifts and Strategic Realignments in Central Asia and the Global South.