Middle East

Strategic evaluation of Middle East conflicts, regional rivalries, energy security, Israel–Iran dynamics, and great power competition in West Asia.

The Mecca Pact: Birth of a New Sunni Security Architecture — Strategic Challenge for India

On 7 August 2026, in the presence of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the Mecca (Makkah) Joint Defence Agreement, a trilateral collective-defence compact declaring that an armed attack on any one of the three shall be treated as an attack on all. This is not a spontaneous diplomatic flourish. It builds on the September 2025 bilateral Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, now widened to bring in Turkey's NATO-integrated military machine and its formidable defence-industrial base, chiefly Baykar's drone ecosystem and the KAAN fighter programme. What has emerged is a framework anchored in collective deterrence, joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, defence-industrial cooperation and interoperability — an arrangement its own architects describe, cautiously, as "purely defensive" and open to future members, but conspicuously silent on any nuclear dimension in its public text.

This pact is less a finished alliance and more a strategic hedge (necessitated by gross insecurity of Saudi Arabia in ongoing war in West Asia) — three states insuring against uncertainty by pooling reputational and military weight, without yet building the institutional scaffolding that would make the guarantee credible like NATO (which itself is undergoing credibility crisis).

“For New Delhi, the issue is not whether India is a target of the pact. The more consequential question is whether Pakistan's strategic weight in Riyadh and Ankara will increase sufficiently to alter the diplomatic environment in which India manages Kashmir, counter-terrorism and its expanding Gulf partnerships.” -Dr Asthana

BRICS LOGO, MEA, India

BRICS at Twenty: India’s Moment to Turn Aspiration into Architecture

BRICS enters its third decade at a moment when the international order is undergoing profound strategic transformation. Its expanded membership gives the grouping unprecedented demographic, economic and geopolitical weight—but also exposes deep internal contradictions. As India assumes the BRICS Chairmanship in 2026, I share an analysis whether New Delhi can convert this diversity into practical cooperation, strengthen the voice of the Global South and help build a more representative multipolar order—without turning BRICS into an anti-Western coalition. There is still one month for the Summit and events do seem to be moving fast in optimistic and challenging side before India sets the stage for the Summit.

India at a Strategic Crossroads: Why Strategic Autonomy Matters More Than Ever

As global geopolitics undergoes a profound transformation, India confronts simultaneous challenges on its Himalayan borders, in the Indian Ocean, and across West Asia. This article examines why strategic autonomy, indigenous defence capability, and calibrated multi-engagement remain India's most effective response to an increasingly transactional international order. As Washington and Beijing recalibrate their relationship, India faces its most consequential strategic choices since the Cold War2.0. The answers lies in building capabilities and maintaining genuine strategic autonomy till then.

Balancing the Eurasian Giant: India’s Strategic Role in Strengthening SCO Military & Security Cooperation

Bridging the Divide in a Multipolar World

“India has good relations with Western countries and is uniquely placed to act as a bridge between SCO and the West” — Major General Dr. S B Asthana

As global governance institutions experience a profound drop in credibility, the geopolitical center of gravity is shifting rapidly toward localized regional alternatives. Covering over 42% of the global population and nearly one-third of the world’s GDP, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) stands as a massive Eurasian bloc navigating the dangerous currents of "Cold War 2.0". Yet, can an organization containing four nuclear-armed powers, deep internal political rivalries, and structural decision-making vulnerabilities truly evolve into a cohesive security alliance?

How can a bloc divided by ideological friction and historical rivalries achieve genuine military and security cohesion? In this insightful analysis, Major General Dr. S B Asthana explores the structural hurdles of the SCO and outlines India's strategic vision for a secure, technologically integrated, and stable Eurasian future. This chapter, titled “Strengthening Military and Security Cooperation in the SCO: An Indian Perspective,” is featured in the seminal volume Reimagining Regionalism: Geopolitical Shifts and Strategic Realignments in Central Asia and the Global South.

The Iran Deal Mirage: From Switzerland and Beyond!

The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding signed in June 2026 and subsequent negotiations in Switzerland have generated cautious optimism. However, beneath the diplomatic headlines lies a deeper strategic reality. In this analysis, Major General (Dr.) S B Asthana examines why the fundamental objectives of Washington, Tel Aviv and Tehran remain irreconcilable, making any future agreement inherently fragile. Drawing upon military strategy, geopolitical realities and regional dynamics, the article explores the JCPOA-plus paradox, the role of Hormuz, the Lebanon fault line, and the implications for India. Sharing the latest analysis from the author.

The Iran War & Global Disruption: Interview of Major General Dr. S B Asthana by FPRC, India, Issue 66.

Read the verbatim FPRC Journal 66 interview with Major General Dr. S B Asthana on the Iran War, Trump’s coercive diplomacy, Netanyahu's political survival, and the realistic compulsions behind India's strategic silence after the tragic MT Settebello strikes.