The bodies of six hostages who were killed in Gaza have been recovered, setting off nationwide protests and labor union strikes against the actions of the Netanyahu government. These protestors believe that the government is postponing a hostage agreement with Gaza and prioritizing the politically untenable goal of completely eliminating Hamas over the lives of the hostages. Israel and Hamas hold each other accountable for killing of hostages and spoiling prospects of possible ceasefire deal.
The internal unrest exacerbates the numerous external security threats that were prompted by Netanyahu and hardliners through a string of assassinations last month, prompting an as-yet-uncompleted retaliation from Iran and its proxies. It is also believed that Netanyahu is attempting to escalate the situation both internally and externally by expanding his activities in the West Bank to a level not seen in decades, endangering the lives of Israelis in order to secure his political survival. In an attempt to avoid losing the votes of those who hold different beliefs in the US elections, President Biden is also hesitant to stop him from engaging in a hypocritical double game of supporting and criticizing him simultaneously.
Iran and its proxies are waiting for an opportunity to exact revenge on their embarrassment, but they are fully aware that Israel and its backer’s combined combat power does not give them any chance of a favorable outcome in an all-out war. This is especially true when the Arab world is divided. While it appears that the pace and rhetoric of Iran’s revenge for Ismail’s assassination on their soil and Hezbollah’s warnings may have abated, the internal division within Netanyahu’s Cabinet and the nation for and against the ceasefire may be too dangerous for Israeli security. External reaction in the form of a fresh hostage crisis, covert activities, or terrorist attack, for which its proxies will be on the lookout for targets anywhere in the world can’t be ruled out.
Notwithstanding what Israeli hardliners led by Netanyahu claim, the reality is that after killing over 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza and over 650 in the West Bank and counting, more hostages were freed alive through negotiations than through outright military action (around 10). It is nonsensical to argue that military force can free captives alive. Several nations have bargained with hijackers on their conditions during hostage situations in order to free hostages alive and then punished them. It would not hurt to give that model a try. Objectively, negotiating a hostage deal gives best chances of getting back remaining hostages alive.
Netanyahu’s defiance to budge from demand of corridor irrespective of internal & external pressure has reduced chances of hostage return, Hamas is believed to have issued instructions to shoot them if IDF closes in as they feel that Israel is not interested in hostages but finishing them off. Pushed to corner they too are getting ready for tough battle ahead. A psychological war is on!
In context of the above I am sharing an analysis of mine published in various forms in various papers/journals regarding external threats to Israel, the URLs of some are attached below:-
“Iran’s Next Move: Key to Middle East Escalation Dynamics”
Backdrop
A series of successful strikes on commanders of Iranian proxies in Tehran and Beirut have escalated the tensions in the Middle East. The sequence of events indicates more professional strategy of Israelis in targeting commanders of Iranian proxies, which is certainly better than mass punishments of Palestinians influenced by revenge psychosis, adopted so far. The ball is currently in the court of Iran, which is evaluating options to recover from the embarrassment of assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in its soil as a guest. Although few interim exchanges have taken place between Hezbollah and Israel, and a US strike on Iraqi non state actor and retaliation in US base, post assassination, but these are routine exchanges as major retaliation is yet to come. The next move of Iran could shape the future escalation dynamics in the region.
The Assassination Drive
While Israel may not own up its hand in assassination of Hamas top political leader and negotiator Ismail Haniyeh and USA has announced that it was neither informed, nor is involved in it, the Iranians have assumed it as a successful covert operation by Mossad (Israel).
While the ownership of killing of Hezbollah’s No 2 Commander Fuad Shukr in Southern Beirut, Ali Nazih Abed Ali a Senior Officer in Southwestern Lebanon, Hamas leader Mohammad Deif in Gaza and some Iranian Republic Guard Corps (IRGC) Commanders in Syria is well established, it’s the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, which seems to be the most important trigger for escalation, where Israel is exercising the option of plausible deniability.
The western media’s initial narrative of internal feud within Hamas, with hardliners seeing Ismail too moderate, or Iran not being happy of Hamas handshake with Fatah in Beijing being cause of assassination, hasn’t found any takers. The intention, benefits and capacity to do so in past (Israel successfully knocked off few nuclear scientists by covert operations in past) pinpoints Israel as prime suspect. The fact that most of the killings of important commanders happened after Netanyahu’s visit to USA and Fuad Shukr was also on the target list of USA due to 1983 Beirut Barrack bombing killings of 241 US Service members, creates a suspicion of a silent US hand or a clearance given to undertake such strikes. Its understandable that Ismail’s assassination in Qatar, Egypt or Jordon would have been very uncomfortable to USA; hence Iran was the right place, from US perspective.
There are many theories about the methodology of assassination from a bomb planted months in advance and activated remotely through AI or IRGC narrative of strike by a short range projectile, but all indicate a major breach in Iranian security structure and a major embarrassment for Iran. It leaves Iran with no option but to take some action to prove its credibility to its proxies and domestic audience, which has taken a big hit by exposure of its vulnerability.
How Does The Situation Impacts Israel?
From military perspective these assassinations have boosted sagging morale of IDF, extended political lifeline of Netanyahu, pushed all ceasefire proposals out of the window in near future, created do or die situation for all proxy fighters of Iran and put Iran’s military credibility to a serious test. Netanyahu has every reason to pat his back and that of his agencies involved, but it might put the life of remaining hostages at grave risk. This aspect may cause some internal friction/dilemma with IDF, Mossad & many cabinet members pushing for ceasefire & release of hostages and Netanyahu with some hardliners pushing for prolonging war to achieve an impractical goal of “Complete Destruction of Hamas” as precondition to permanent ceasefire.
Israel is also communicating with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Bahrain to defend against the upcoming Iranian attack by allowing it to use their airspace and help in neutralising some projectiles. Prolonging the war and refusal to accept two state solution is also widening the gap between Netanyahu and Joe Biden, who finds himself getting increasingly and reluctantly involved to chase impractical goals of Netanyahu and his political survival.
The Iranian Options!
There is a wide asymmetry in conventional combat capability (including nuclear arsenal) of Israel backed by USA and Iran along with proxies, therefore Iran has been more comfortable in fighting a proxy war through his regional proxies instead of direct confrontation. Iran knows that an all-out war cannot give it any favourable outcome. Iran and Houthis don’t have a land access to Israel; hence, they have very little option other than launching standoff attacks through missiles, drones and rockets of varying intensity, magnitude and impact.
Hezbollah is the only strong group which has some capability to fight an intense ground battle, but it’s no match to the collective capability of Israel and US. It would therefore prefer standoff attacks and covert operations over conventional war. The capability of Hamas has been weakened considerably but it will continue small tactical clandestine actions against IDF under leadership of Yayha Sinwar, its leader in Gaza and one of the alleged planners of the October 7 terror attack on Israel, a hardliner, now appointed as the new head of its political bureau, replacing Ismail Haniyeh.
There are many backdoor negotiations going on and the fact that Iran has given adequate time to Israel and USA to prepare against its possible attack to minimise casualties, indicates that there could be a symbolic attack, bigger than its strike carried out in April 2024, in response to Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria, to satisfy its proxies and public. Hezbollah maintains that keeping Israel waiting is part of the punishment! In absence of credible options of all-out attack by Iran, it appears that the actual revenge could also come through some terrorist action/ clandestine operations/new hostage crisis, for which its proxies will be on look out for targets anywhere in the world as terrorism has no boundaries.
American Stakes!
USA has no choice but to defend strategic location of Israel, which is its most trusted ally, maintaining its strongest foothold in Middle East. Netanyahu continues to encash this strategic equation to fulfil his political agenda forcing USA to oblige, despite the optics of trying to control his overdrive/excesses by IDF, to amuse its domestic audience/voters and some allies not comfortable with excessive civilian casualties in Gaza. Simultaneously its still trying to push negotiations for ceasefire, release of hostages and its peace plan with all parties.
USA is sending more fighter planes, warships, and a carrier strike group to the Middle East. As per Pentagon, additional cruisers, destroyers, and a fighter squadron are part of the deployment, along with the carrier strike group USS Abraham Lincoln, to strengthen defences and assist Israel in its defence against a possible military attack by Iran and its proxies Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis.
Other Stake Holders?
Meanwhile, as show of support, Russia had sent former Defence Minister and Head of National Security Council Sergei Shoigu to meet Iranian President Pezeshkian and counterparts to Tehran. Russia has reportedly started sending advanced air defence systems and radars to Iran and Iran has reportedly asked for Russian made Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets. Iran has deployed Russia’s most powerful jamming communication system, Murmansk-BN, at strategically important locations. Reportedly President Putin too has asked Iran’s Supreme leader for a restrained response to avoid civil casualties in Israel as Russia may not be keen to overstretch itself at this point of time.
Iran could count on political and diplomatic support from China and Russia at United Nations, which may not be not good enough to go for full blown war.
Turkish President Erdogan made statements suggesting that Turkey could potentially intervene militarily in Israel to support of Palestinians, drawing parallels to his past interventions in Karabakh and Libya. His comments look more like political posturing than for real, as being a NATO member it may not be easy for him to do so, with USA standing firmly with Israel. Erdogan is using this opportunity to score a point in Islamic world. Turkey has stopped trade with Israel since May 2024 and might continue with such gestures. North Korean posturing seems to be more of optics at this stage.
The Arab world hasn’t supported Palestinians beyond lip service in one of the worst humanitarian catastrophe and violations of IHL by Israel in response to brutal terror attack by Hamas on October 07; hence Iran can’t expect any help from them. In fact many Arab countries might be happier with assassinations and embarrassment of Iran.
What Happens to Gaza?
If Hezbollah launches offensive, Israel might be compelled to pull some more troops from Gaza, scale down combing operations and rely more on standoff strikes, as it has been doing in past. Indicators are that IDF is pushing for scaling down large scale operations in Gaza to specific int based targeting. Cease fire will be difficult in near term. Netanyahu’s ambition of ‘Greater Israel’ will block any two state solution on some pretext or the other. Palestinians will continue to suffer due to lack of effective, sensible, moderate leadership, under uncontrolled Israel, backed by USA, and the global community not acting beyond lip service.
USA is trying for a two state solution independent of Hamas, with a puppet leader from Fatah to govern Gaza and West Bank, which is unlikely to be accepted by Israel as well as Hamas. Hamas, their quest for independent state and hatred towards Israel will not die down. The leaders will get replaced but the ideology will remain. The war even if sees some sort of conflict termination under brute pressure, its likely to continue in the mind of the Palestinian sufferers and radicalised terror groups, motivated to seek revenge through any means, anywhere in the world and is likely to erupt again in future.
Global Impact
Israel Iran escalation will push the world further under inflationary pressure. Red Sea may become even more risky and shipping through Persian Gulf too may face serious threat. A disturbed oil flow may further cause price rise and turbulent economic environment. From Indian perspective initiatives like I2U2 and India- Middle East Europe Economic Corridor may get postponed indefinitely and Israel as one of Indian supplier of military hardware may face problems in meeting Indian supply orders. The global power blocks with Iran-Russia-China-North Korea and Syria getting closer to oppose USA, Israel and their Western Allies is an obvious outcome. Most importantly Iran’s chances of going nuclear may increase much more, which may not be a good news for the region.
Major General (Dr) S B Asthana
(The views expressed are personal views of the author, who retains the copy right. The author is a Globally acknowledged Strategic and Security Analyst, He can be reached at Facebook and LinkedIn as Shashi Asthana, @asthana_shashi on twitter, and personnel site https://asthanawrites.org/ email shashiasthana29@gmail.com LinkedIn Profile www.linkedin.com/in/shashi-asthana-4b3801a6
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