While US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo may pat his back under the pressure of optics to deliver on North Korean front, by calling his two days talks as ‘productive’ but the North Korean perception of ‘US Stance as regrettable, gangster-like and cancerous’ clearly indicates wide gap in expectations of both towards each other.
The South Korean President visit to India is important and is expected to be very positive in terms of trade, global strategic security issues like seamless movement in Indo-Pacific Ocean, culture, tourism and other common issues, but any expectation of Indian role in resolving North Korean tangle will be overambitious, notwithstanding the fact that India is a common friend of all countries involved in this problem and a rare country with embassy in North Korea.
When it was reported by some media agencies (AXIOS, NBC News) that North Korea is believed to have increased development of fuel for nuclear weapons at “multiple secret sites in recent months,” NBC reports, citing over a dozen U.S. officials familiar with the issue, it was not a surprise at all. The optics of their Trump- Kim Summit had to showcase positiveness of talks , as a failed meet wasn’t suiting both. The expectations/promises seemed too good to be possible. Complete, Irreversible, verifiable denuclearisation also involves dismantling of missiles, which Kim is unlikely to do, more so after looking at the end result of Iran Deal.
After the well orchestrated event, both leaders are thinking how to deliver, whatever they promised/advertised. China is in a hurry to call for lifting UN sanctions against North Korea. North Korea has got away with Offensive US- South Korean exercises, not the sanctions, but US may find it difficult to explain, as to what they achieved so far. Japan and South Korea may have to contend with empty hopes. This is a contradiction of what President Trump said he and Kim Jong-un agreed on. North Korea and China have come out to be a beneficiary by avoiding immediate crisis, yet not giving up their deterrence capability. The Summit has made Kim a taller leader in domestic domain, making US President talk to him. It has also given a dangerous message that Nuclear blackmailing works.
I had written on “Trump –Kim Summit: A Gamble beyond Optics” immediately after the Summit and joint declaration, anticipating most of these things. The gist is given below. The pieces were published in various forms in many global publications, the URLs of which are given below.
The world is talking of this Summit as a historic moment with hopes that it will bring peace to Korean Peninsula. Reading between the lines, beyond the niceties and magnificent optics displayed, some realities do emerge, which will indicate that it is beginning of a great gamble by both sides. This issue had crossed the limit of being a bilateral one and it impacts other stakeholders as well, hence this may not be the last call on peace of Korean Peninsula. In real terms North Korea continues to be saddled with continued economic sanctions and US continues to be suspicious of implementation of the complete, irreversible, verifiable denuclearization, hence will lift sanctions only ‘when nukes are no longer an issue’. Both leaders can pat their back as US has made Kim sign the document on denuclearization in a manner it suits them, and Kim has been able to get the offensive military exercises/war games off his mind at least for some time, having bought time for the next step.
A happy ending Summit: Was there any other option?
US and North Korea have called the Summit a historic success, but it was also a compulsion in light of lack of alternatives. It was the only practical option because a failed summit was not suiting either side. At the face value all world leaders have expressed happiness over the Summit and have hoped for a peaceful Korean Peninsula, but it needs to be analysed whether their concerns have been met or otherwise.
- US will continue to be apprehensive till it is verified that N Korea is no more capable to nuke its mainland. US may have taken off continuation of military exercises, but it is yet to be clarified if it is going to take off THAAD, which was a concern of China and Russia also.
- North Korea having signed the document, will be forced to think that with economic sanctions being in place, was it a big gamble to give away its only strategic leverage? As an analyst it looks too good to be true. It however remains to be seen that will China allow Kim to be stripped of all nukes. Kim can claim accolade over making President Trump talk to him through nuclear blackmail. This will enhance his credibility in his country as well as in global arena.
- China highlighting its influence, did talk of its efforts in getting both leaders together, but in a subtle message has indirectly shown concern about reasonable security and safety of North Korea. Kim had consulted President Xi Jinping twice before the Summit, but it is not sure that the document signed is as per the narrative of President Xi or a variation of the same. China will also be concerned about THAAD and continued sanctions, leaving an ambiguity to send their trade items and essentialities to North Korea or otherwise.
- Japan will continue to be skeptical of North Korea, because even if North Korea does denuclearize, the missile threat will continue to loom over its territory, notwithstanding a remark by President Trump that Kim has agreed to destroy a missile site.
- South Korea will be happy as its efforts to get the two leaders across the table have finally borne fruits, and there is a move forward. They would genuinely look for peace, as Seoul is within reach of conventional weapons of North Korea.
- Russian may have to wait for clarifications on THAAD deployment, a concern they have been airing earlier.
- India will welcome a peaceful Korean Peninsula, but would be keen on some control on North Korea on alleged proliferation of missile technology to Pakistan.
It remains to be seen as to what the future has for Korean Peninsula, but it was interesting to see the diplomatic negotiations at its best in the run up for the Summit. It was a commendable diplomatic breakthrough after decades of hostility, but there is still no guarantee that North Korea would follow it up. Equally interesting were the two unpredictable leaders conducting themselves with grace and maturity in a well choreographed event. It will also be interesting to see that in case of leakages in sanctions by any third country, how will US respond after display of such niceties? The final test will be the response of North Korea to the international inspectors of nukes.
Major General S B Asthana
(The views expressed are personal views of the author. Reachable at Facebook, LinkedIn & Google+ as Shashi Asthana, Twitter-asthana_shashi ) Mob +919810885519 email email@example.com own site https://asthanawrites.org/ Profile –
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