“India is the only country in the world, which has two nuclear neighbours having border issues with it, which have led to wars in past and both of them are in collusion with each other”
We are in an era of global geopolitical churning wherein Cold War 1.0 has got mixed with Cold War 2.0, with scores of ongoing Kinetic, contact wars and durable disorders. Along with that, we are also into an era of Non Kinetic, Non- contact warfare going on side by side, with new instruments of war to include President Trump led economic war, information war, cognitive war, shadow war and influence operations.
From Indian perspective, the recent unrest and regime changes in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal, and Big Powers support to Pakistan during and after Operation Sindoor indicates the inclusion of South Asia in ‘Big Power Contestation’ with US renewed interest in the region to checkmate China and India.
In this context I am sharing a chapter of mine published in the Book “Regionalism and Security Challenges in South and Central Asia: Navigating Geopolitical Shifts”, published by Pentagon Press LLP, New Delhi, India, ISBN 978-81-99162-2-1. The chapter is titled as “Decoding Geopolitical Shift and South Asia: How can India Navigate it’s Security Interests? The chapter dates before commencement of tariff confrontation between USA and India. The detailed text is reproduced below to enable readers who don’t have accass to the book.
Decoding Geopolitical Shift and South Asia: How can India Navigate it’s Security Interests?
“India is the only country in the world, which has two nuclear neighbours having border issues with it, which have led to wars in past and both of them are in collusion with each other”
By
Major General (Dr) S B Asthana,SM,VSM,PhD
Abstract
The geopolitical landscape of South Asia is undergoing significant shifts driven by global power dynamics, regional conflicts, and emerging security threats. India, as the region’s most influential power, faces multifaceted security challenges, including border disputes, terrorism, political instability, and technological warfare. The document explores how India navigates these threats while balancing relations with major global powers like the United States, Russia, and China. The discussion extends to the roles of regional security organizations such as SAARC, BIMSTEC, IORA, and the SCO in fostering security cooperation, despite their structural and geopolitical limitations. The research highlights India’s strategic responses, emphasizing diplomatic engagements, military modernization, and multilateral partnerships. The study underscores India’s unique position as a nuclear-armed state bordering two adversarial nations, necessitating a nuanced foreign policy approach. Additionally, the document examines the implications of Cold War 2.0, cyber threats, space militarization, and climate change on regional stability. The effectiveness of India’s strategic partnerships with the U.S. and Russia is analysed, focusing on defence cooperation, energy security, and emerging technological collaborations. The research concludes that India must continue strengthening regional alliances, bolstering indigenous defence capabilities, and adopting a pragmatic foreign policy to ensure its security interests in an increasingly volatile global order.
Backdrop
The world today faces a volatile geopolitical environment where global security is increasingly threatened by both conventional and non-conventional risks. The global order has become increasingly turbulent due to shifting power dynamics, the rise of multipolarity, and the erosion of traditional alliances. Nations like China and Russia are challenging the US led West’s dominance, leading to a fragmentation of global governance structures, such as the UN. These shifts create uncertainty, as countries navigate economic competition, regional conflicts, and ideological clashes.
Simultaneously, global security is fragile due to several factors. Ongoing conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, instability in the Middle East and tensions in the South and East China Sea, exemplify the vulnerabilities of international peace amidst global power play. These security challenges impact every region of the world including South Asia, which is a part of global South, which is home to a quarter of global population, consisting of developing countries, some of which are witnessing instability and internal disturbances, struggling to find permanent solutions to their security problems. India being the most prominent South Asian country has to manage relations with many unstable neighbours and do strategic balancing with big powers looking at South Asia and Indian Ocean.
Global Geopolitical Realities and Security Challenges Impacting South Asia
The evolving geopolitical landscape is increasingly shaped by great power contestation, regional conflicts, and the rise of unconventional warfare. The post-Cold War order is witnessing a shift towards multipolarity, characterized by a renewed strategic rivalry—often termed Cold War 2.0—between the United States led West and China, with Russia playing a pivotal role. After break up of USSR Cold War 1.0 between NATO and USSR should have ended but the eastward expansion of NATO and violent response by Russia, leading to Russia Ukraine War has put the world in a situation where Cold War 1.0 and Cold War 2.0[i] are continuing simultaneously impacting entire world including South Asia.
Inter and intra-state wars continue to plague global stability. From Ukraine to Yemen and the persistent conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, state and non-state actors engage in proxy battles that reflect broader geopolitical rivalries, evident in South Asia as well. The current conflicts exemplifies multidimensional warfare, involving cyber operations, economic sanctions, disinformation campaigns, and the use of terrorists and mercenaries, along with many conventional military engagements like Afghanistan- Pakistan in recent past.
The instruments of war have expanded significantly. Space militarization, artificial intelligence (AI), cyber warfare, and autonomous weapon systems are reshaping the battlefield. The increasing reliance on drones, AI-driven surveillance, and digital propaganda campaigns have blurred the lines between war and peace, necessitating new strategies for global security. A competition in these dimensions is evident at global and regional stage including South Asia with China leading the Arms race, dominating South Asian countries.
The decline of international institutions like the UN, coupled with moral ambiguities and double standards in global politics, has eroded trust in the global governance framework. Regional organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) offer some alternative to address security issues through localized solutions, reducing reliance on external actors. However, only India and Pakistan are members of the SCO.
Non-state actors—terrorists, mercenaries, warlords, and criminal syndicates—are increasingly employed as strategic tools by states and private entities. Their role in destabilizing nations, influencing political outcomes, and engaging in asymmetric warfare underscores the complexities of contemporary security challenges. The footprints of such entities like ISKP and others are significantly growing in South Asia.
Addressing these threats requires a nuanced approach that incorporates diplomatic engagement, technological safeguards, and enhanced regional and extra-regional cooperation to ensure global stability.
South Asia: A Complex and Dynamic Region
South Asia is a geopolitically significant region comprising Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. It is home to nearly a quarter of the world’s population, making it one of the most densely populated and culturally diverse regions on the planet. The region is characterized by historical legacies, economic disparities, security challenges, and strategic importance in global geopolitics.
Geopolitical Significance The Geopolitics of South Asia encompasses a complex interplay of power and influence in the region. South Asia sits at the crossroads of major global trade routes and is strategically positioned between the Middle East, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. The presence of nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan, along with China’s increasing influence, adds to the region’s strategic importance. Unsettled border tensions between India and China, and illegal occupation of Pakistan and China of parts Kashmir continue to shape regional security dynamics. South Asia holds strategic significance due to its location between the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. External powers such as the United States and China have a vested interest in the region.
Economic Landscape South Asia has some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, with India leading it, as a major global economic power. China, located North of South Asia is an economic giant expanding its economic linkages through ‘Belt and Road Initiative’[ii], ‘Debt Trap Diplomacy’ and infrastructure offensive. However, economic disparities remain stark, with widespread poverty, unemployment, and infrastructural challenges affecting millions. Addressing political rivalries, poverty, and security threats remains crucial for long-term stability and development.
Security Challenges in South Asia
South Asia, is one of the most geopolitically significant yet volatile regions in the world. It faces a myriad of security challenges, ranging from terrorism and border disputes to political instability and climate change. These issues threaten regional peace and stability, making security a major concern for policymakers.
Terrorism and Extremism. Terrorism remains one of the most pressing security threats in South Asia. Countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan have long struggled with extremist groups like the Taliban, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Al-Qaeda, ISKP and many other terrorist organisations, which have disrupted national and regional stability. India also faces threats from groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, hosted and sponsored by Pakistan to launch proxy war against India, particularly in the Kashmir region. While Bangladesh had made significant progress in counterterrorism efforts, but with overthrow of Shekh Hasina’s Government and takeover by unelected interim government, the threat of radicalization has increased manifold[iii]. The presence of these groups hinders security, economic growth, disrupts social harmony, and complicates diplomatic relations.
Border Disputes and Territorial Conflicts. Border conflicts are a major source of tension in South Asia. India and Pakistan have fought multiple wars over Kashmir, and despite ceasefire agreements, the Line of Control (LoC) remains a volatile flashpoint. Similarly, India and China have ongoing border disputes in the Himalayas, leading to skirmishes in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. Nepal has also had boundary disputes with India. These territorial conflicts not only lead to military confrontations but also impact trade, development, and regional cooperation.
Political Instability and Internal Conflicts. Several South Asian countries face political instability due to weak governance, corruption, and ethnic or sectarian divisions. Afghanistan’s political landscape remains fragile after the Taliban takeover in 2021, leading to humanitarian and security crises. Sri Lanka experienced economic turmoil that led to mass protests and political changes few years back. Pakistan has faced recurring political instability, with frequent changes in government and military interference in civilian affairs. In Nepal, political transitions have been marked by uncertainty and infighting, including the recent protests against politicians and regime change. Weak political institutions create a breeding ground for insurgency, radicalization, and human rights violations.
Nuclear Rivalry and Arms Race. South Asia is home to two nuclear-armed rivals, India and Pakistan, which have a history of conflict. The nuclearization of South Asia was triggered by China after it went nuclear in 1964. This created a compulsion for India to test its device followed by Pakistan. Their nuclear doctrines, coupled with ongoing border tensions, raise concerns about potential escalation. The lack of a structured arms control agreement further complicates the situation. Additionally, China’s growing military presence in the region, particularly in the Indian Ocean, has prompted India to strengthen its defence capabilities. This arms race increases the risk of miscalculation and undermines efforts toward regional peace. Chinese aim of having 1000 nukes by 2030[iv] is a cause of concern not only for South Asia but for other global players too.
Cybersecurity Threats. With rapid digitization, cyber threats have become a new dimension of security challenges in South Asia. Cyber warfare, espionage, and data breaches have increased, with state and non-state actors targeting critical infrastructure, financial systems, and government networks. Countries like India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh frequently experience cyberattacks that can destabilize economies and national security. The rapidly growing cyber capability of China is a cause of global concern, beyond South Asia. The lack of regional cooperation on cybersecurity exacerbates the problem.
Climate Change and Environmental Security. Climate change poses an existential security threat to South Asia, exacerbating natural disasters, water shortages, and food insecurity. Rising sea levels threaten low-lying nations like Bangladesh and the Maldives, while extreme weather events such as floods and droughts impact millions across the region. Environmental stress can lead to resource conflicts, displacement, and economic instability, further intensifying existing security concerns.
The security challenges in South Asia are complex and interconnected, requiring regional cooperation and strong governance. Addressing terrorism, resolving border disputes, strengthening political institutions, and mitigating climate risks are essential for sustainable peace and stability. Diplomatic dialogue, economic integration, and joint security initiatives could pave the way for a more secure South Asia.
Regionalism in South Asia: Regional Security Organizations, Their Framework, and Future
Regionalism in South Asia has gained importance due to shared historical, cultural, and economic ties among its countries. However, the region remains one of the least integrated in the world due to geopolitical tensions, security threats and economic disparities. Regional security organizations have been established to address some of these challenges, but their effectiveness has been limited.
In South Asia, the development of regionalism has been sluggish for several reasons. Firstly, tensions between India and Pakistan regarding Kashmir, border disputes between India and China, and ongoing political unrest in Afghanistan have obstructed collaboration. Secondly, the economic disparities within South Asia, characterized by varied economies—from India’s large economy to the smaller, less developed nations like Nepal and Bhutan—pose a challenge. Thirdly, the political instability present in countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, and more recently, Bangladesh, further complicates matters. Fourthly, regional organizations in South Asia are deficient in robust enforcement mechanisms. Lastly, the influence and interference of global powers such as China and the U.S. are affecting regional dynamics.
Despite these challenges, regionalism to some extent has been promoted through organizations like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) elaborated in succeeding paras.
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)
The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was established in 1985 with the objective of fostering economic and regional integration among its eight member states: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Despite its ambitious goals, SAARC has struggled to achieve meaningful progress due to political conflicts, institutional weaknesses, and lack of effective implementation of agreements (Dash, 2008)[v]. The security focus was on Counterterrorism, human trafficking, and disaster management.
SAARC has been found to be low in effectiveness and the main reason is the long-standing political hostility between India and Pakistan. Their bilateral tensions have often stalled regional cooperation, as seen in the cancellation of the 19th SAARC Summit in 2016 due to heightened diplomatic conflicts. This rivalry has made collective decision-making difficult, limiting SAARC’s ability to implement policies effectively. SAARC lacks a strong institutional mechanism to enforce agreements and ensure compliance among its members. The consensus-based decision-making model further complicates progress, as any single member state can block initiatives. SAARC has failed to facilitate intra-regional trade, which remains below 5% of the total trade among member states despite the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), implemented in 2006 (Jaiswal and Dixit,2022)[vi].
Security and Counterterrorism Challenges. Although SAARC established the Regional Convention on Suppression of Terrorism in 1987, enforcement has been weak. Security cooperation remains minimal due to mistrust among member states, limiting collective efforts in counterterrorism, human trafficking, and disaster management.
SAARC’s potential remains unfulfilled due to persistent political rivalries, institutional weaknesses, and economic protectionism. Unless member states prioritize regional cooperation over bilateral conflicts and strengthen institutional frameworks, SAARC is unlikely to emerge as an effective regional organization. Future progress will require deeper commitment from all stakeholders to enhance trade, security, and diplomatic engagements.
BIMSTEC: A Regional Cooperation Initiative for the Bay of Bengal
The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional organization that brings together South Asian and Southeast Asian countries for economic and technical cooperation. Established in 1997, BIMSTEC has evolved into a crucial regional organization addressing economic growth, trade, connectivity, and regional security. BIMSTEC is an intergovernmental organization comprising seven countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand.
The organization aims to foster technological and economic cooperation across various sectors, including trade, transport, energy, and security (BIMSTEC, 2022). The first summit of BIMSTEC was held in Bangkok in 2004, marking the formalization of its objectives and institutional framework. Headquartered in Dhaka, Bangladesh, the organization seeks to address the socio-economic challenges of one of the world’s poorest regions while harnessing its untapped energy potential.
Objectives and Key Areas of Cooperation. BIMSTEC prioritizes economic integration and sustainable development through regional collaboration in commerce, investment, agriculture, tourism, fisheries, human resource development, and transport connectivity (BIMSTEC, 2022)[vii]. The highest policy-making body within BIMSTEC is the Summit, which convenes biennially to assess progress and set the future agenda. One of its flagship initiatives is the BIMSTEC Trans-Power Exchange and Development Project, which aims to optimize energy resources, promote regional electricity networks, and enhance cross-border power trade (BIMSTEC, 2022).
5th BIMSTEC Summit: Key Developments. The 5th BIMSTEC Summit in 2022 focused on strengthening institutional mechanisms and enhancing regional cooperation was held on March 30, 2022, in Sri Lanka in a hybrid mode. A major achievement was the adoption and signing of the BIMSTEC Charter, which granted BIMSTEC formal recognition as an international organization with its own flag, emblem, and principles (BIMSTEC, 2022)[viii]. Additionally, India pledged USD 1 million to the BIMSTEC Secretariat to enhance operational efficiency (MEA, 2022)[ix].
Sixth BIMSTEC Leaders’ Summit 2024: Key Highlights. It was held on September 3-4, 2024, in Bangkok. The key Outcomes of the Summit includes Introduction of the concept of PRO BIMSTEC, envisioning the region as Prosperous, Resilient, Open, and Sustainable. To achieve these objectives, member states agreed to align their national policies with Bangkok Vision 2030, which advocates for increased regional integration and shared prosperity. Following the summit, the 6th and final Meeting of the Eminent Persons’ Group (EPG) on the Future Directions of BIMSTEC was held on September 2024, in Dhaka, which reviewed the institutional framework of BIMSTEC and formulated recommendations for reform.
The BIMSTEC Master Plan for Transport Connectivity was highlighted as a key driver for economic and infrastructure development. The plan focuses on two main aspects: Upgrading national connectivity frameworks to align with a regional roadmap and Enhancing both hard (physical infrastructure) and soft (regulatory and policy) infrastructure to facilitate trade and movement across borders (BIMSTEC Secretariat, 2024)[x].
Strategic Relevance of BIMSTEC in the Indo-Pacific. BIMSTEC has gained prominence due to India’s “Neighbourhood First” and “Act East” policies, aligning it with the broader Indo-Pacific strategy (Mohan, 2021)[xi]. The Bay of Bengal is emerging as a geopolitical focal point, linking the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific regions. The revival of BIMSTEC reinforces regional integration, economic connectivity, and security cooperation.
Key Challenges in BIMSTEC. Despite enormous potential, BIMSTEC faces challenges such as political divergence among members, resource constraints, and slow institutional development (Kumar, 2021)[xii]. One major challenge is the inconsistency in meetings, as only five summits have taken place in 25 years, despite the initial plan for biennial summits. India has primarily turned to BIMSTEC due to bilateral difficulties in SAARC, while Thailand and Myanmar focus more on ASEAN. The broad scope of BIMSTEC, covering 14 areas of cooperation, also dilutes its effectiveness. A more focused approach could enhance efficiency.
Several bilateral issues further complicate regional cooperation. For instance, Bangladesh is dealing with a severe Rohingya refugee crisis stemming from Myanmar as well as its internal turmoil, while border conflicts persist between Myanmar and Thailand. Additionally, the emergence of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Forum, which includes China, raises doubts about BIMSTEC’s exclusivity and relevance. Unfinished projects, vague declarations such as the Colombo Declaration, and Myanmar’s internal instability further impede progress. The military unrest in Myanmar disrupts key connectivity projects, and essential legal frameworks for transport and energy grid connections remain incomplete, limiting BIMSTEC’s ability to enhance regional integration.
Way Forward. To enhance its effectiveness, BIMSTEC needs to secure strong political commitment from all member nations, Strengthen its institutional mechanisms, including the Secretariat, Prioritize regional connectivity by implementing the Master Plan for Transport Connectivity and Foster greater engagement between business communities, educational institutions, and industries.
BIMSTEC plays a pivotal role in fostering economic cooperation and connectivity in the Bay of Bengal region. The adoption of the BIMSTEC Charter and recent agreements signal a renewed commitment to regional integration. Moving forward, the organization must address institutional weaknesses and enhance regional cooperation to realize its full potential as a dynamic regional bloc in the Indo-Pacific.
The Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA): Structure and Geopolitical Significance
IORA was established in 1997 as a regional intergovernmental organization focusing on maritime security, trade facilitation, disaster risk management, and academic cooperation (IORA Secretariat, 2023)[xiii]. With 23 member states, including India, Australia, Indonesia, and South Africa, IORA plays a significant role in ensuring regional stability, particularly in the face of China’s growing maritime presence in the Indian Ocean.
A crucial aspect of IORA’s recent development is its strategic partnership with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In September 2023, both organizations signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to enhance cooperation in areas such as the Blue Economy, digital transformation, and sustainable development. This collaboration aligns with the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) and IORA Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (IOIP), ensuring a coordinated approach to regional challenges (ASEAN Secretariat, 2023)[xiv].
IORA’s focus on maritime security and counter-piracy efforts is essential for South Asian trade and energy security. However, the organization faces strategic challenges due to increasing Chinese naval activity in the region, which has led to geopolitical tensions (IORA Secretariat, 2023)[xv]. Strengthening institutional mechanisms and enhancing cooperation with ASEAN can help IORA maintain regional stability and economic resilience.
BIMSTEC and IORA are pivotal regional organizations shaping the economic and security architecture of the Indo-Pacific. While BIMSTEC focuses on regional integration within the Bay of Bengal, IORA extends its influence across the Indian Ocean. Both organizations emphasize connectivity, trade, and sustainable development, though they face geopolitical and economic challenges. Their growing cooperation with ASEAN further strengthens their roles in regional governance, ensuring collective security and prosperity.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Its Relevance to South Asian Security
The SCO) is a regional intergovernmental organization that plays a crucial role in fostering security, economic, and political cooperation in Eurasia and South Asia. Established in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, the organization expanded to include India and Pakistan (2017) and Iran (2023). Given the complex security landscape of South Asia, the SCO has potential to becomea significant platform for counterterrorism, conflict resolution, and regional stability (Aris, 2013)[xvi].
SCO’s Role in South Asia. SCO’s role in security of South Asia gets limited to the fact that only India and Pakistan are the only members in South Asia, who have significant security concerns amongst each other, however, it provides the platform for resolution of some of the security problems in more than one way. Firstly, One of the primary security functions of the SCO is countering terrorism, extremism, and separatism through the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), headquartered in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. This organisation facilitates intelligence sharing, coordinated military operations, and counterterrorism drills, crucial in tackling extremist groups in South Asia, however, its impact in India Pakistan context has been limited in past.
Secondly, the SCO serves as a neutral platform for diplomatic discussions, particularly between adversarial states like India and Pakistan. While it does not directly mediate conflicts, it fosters dialogue through annual summits and ministerial meetings, reducing bilateral tensions and promoting peace (Kavalski, 2010)[xvii].
Thirdly, The SCO regularly conducts joint military exercises, such as the “Peace Mission” drills, to enhance cooperation in counterterrorism and security operations. Participation from India, Pakistan, China, and Russia in these exercises fosters military confidence-building measures. These have been relevant for missions like disaster management and humanitarian aid, anti-piracy, counter terrorism and maritime security, especially in scenarios like interdiction in Red Sea, wherein Indian Navy rescued many crews including that of Pakistan.
It is expected that in future with expansion of SCO, and weakening of global organisations like United Nations, its role and effectiveness will grow, even in regions like South Asia. Its scope may extend to include cybersecurity, climate change, and health security.
Future of Regional Security Organizations in South Asia
The future of regional security cooperation depends on several initiatives like greater engagement with ASEAN and the QUAD (India, U.S., Japan, Australia) could enhance regional security, India’s leadership in IORA can help counter China’s influence in the Indian Ocean, economic interdependence through trade agreements can improve regional cooperation.
Infrastructure projects like the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) initiative can enhance connectivity and security. Climate change-driven security risks (e.g., water disputes, displacement) should be a key focus of regional cooperation. Health security, particularly post-COVID-19, requires joint preparedness efforts.
Regionalism in South Asia has potential but is hindered by political rivalries and weak institutions. While organizations like SAARC and BIMSTEC offer security frameworks, their effectiveness remains limited. Strengthening these organizations, enhancing economic ties, and fostering multilateral dialogue are crucial for ensuring regional security and stability in the future.
Security Challenges of India and Its Strategic Responses
India, as a rising global power, faces complex multifaceted security challenges, ranging from border disputes, terrorism, internal security, and cyber threats to geopolitical complexities involving major powers in both traditional and non-traditional domains. These challenges arise from its geopolitical position, diverse internal landscape, and evolving global threats.
To counter such threats the Indian government continues to develop strategic responses through military, diplomatic, and technological measures by own capacity building in all domains of warfare as well as developing strategic partnerships with many countries and organisations like Quad. India has adopted a multi-pronged security strategy while strategically balancing its relationships with the USA and Russia to maintain its strategic autonomy in an evolving global order (Pant, 2020).
India is the only country in the world, which has two nuclear neighbours having border issues with it, which have led to wars in past and both of them are in collusion with each other. India therefore faces threat on more than one front and needs to address them for which it needs strategic partners. It therefore does a careful strategic balancing (Asthana, 2018)[xviii] managing good relations with many strategic partners of which USA and Russia are most prominent. The defence and security relationships with both of them are elaborated in succeeding paras.
India-Russia Strategic and Security Relationship
The India-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership has been a cornerstone of India’s foreign and security policy since the Cold War era. Built on mutual trust, defence cooperation, and geopolitical alignment, the relationship continues to evolve amidst shifting global dynamics. While India has diversified its strategic partnerships, particularly with the United States, its ties with Russia remain significant in defence, energy security, space cooperation, and multilateral engagement.
Historical Foundations of India-Russia Relations. India and Russia share a legacy of strong bilateral relations dating back to the 1950s. The Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation (1971) formalized strategic cooperation during the Cold War, particularly during the Bangladesh Liberation War. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the partnership was reaffirmed through the 1993 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation and the 2000 India-Russia Strategic Partnership Agreement, which elevated ties to a comprehensive level.
Key Areas of Strategic and Security Cooperation. Russia remains India’s largest arms supplier, accounting for nearly 45% of Indian defence imports. Major defence collaborations include the S-400 Triumf Missile System, which India procured despite US threat of sanctions under CAATSA, reinforcing its air defence capabilities. The BrahMos Missile Development, a joint Indo-Russian venture, enhances India’s strike capabilities[xix]. The production of AK-203 rifles strengthens India’s self-reliance in arms manufacturing[xx]. India also operates Russian-origin submarines, Su-30MKI fighter jets, and aircraft carriers like INS Vikramaditya, showcasing deep naval and aerospace cooperation.
Energy security remains a vital pillar of Indo-Russian relations. Russia’s Rosatom is actively involved in developing nuclear reactors at the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) in Tamil Nadu, India has increased energy imports from Russia, benefiting from discounted crude oil amid global sanctions on Moscow. Additionally, India is investing in Russian Arctic energy projects to diversify its energy sources (Kapoor, 2021)[xxi].
In space and technology cooperation, Russia is training Indian astronauts for the Gaganyaan Human Spaceflight Mission. Furthermore, collaboration in GLONASS (Russia’s GPS system) strengthens India’s strategic navigation capabilities.
India and Russia also engage in multilateral platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), where both nations advocate for regional security and counterterrorism initiatives (Pant, 2021). Their cooperation in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) promotes multipolarity in global governance. India is also exploring a trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) to enhance economic connectivity with Russia and Central Asia.
India Russia Summit December 2024. 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit was held in July 2024 in Russia addressing a wide range of issues. In Defence and Technology, it witnessed a transition from buyer-seller relationship to joint research, development, co-development, and joint production of advanced defence technology and systems. Both countries also aimed to encourage joint manufacturing of spare parts and components for Russian-origin arms and defence equipment in India under the Make-in-India program. This includes setting up joint ventures for meeting the needs of the Indian Armed Forces and for subsequent export to friendly third countries.
Both countries agreed to establish a new Working Group on Technological Cooperation to discuss its provisions in the next meeting of Intergovernmental Commission on Military and Military Technical Cooperation (IRIGC-M&MTC). Developing stable and efficient transport corridors in Eurasia, including the Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) was also pursued. The ‘Act Far East’ policy (Kapoor, 2023)[xxii] was reaffirmed.
Challenges in India-Russia Relations. Despite strong ties, challenges persist. India faces pressure from the US to limit defence and energy dealings with Russia. Russia’s growing alignment with China, especially post-Ukraine conflict, raises concerns for India. Additionally, India’s increasing defence procurement from other nations affects traditional arms deals with Russia. In 2017, approximately 68% of the Indian Military’s hardware import came from Russia, but owing to ‘Atmanirbhar’ Mission and diversification in procurement by India, Russian exports to India have fallen considerably during 2019-2023. Russia at 36%, France 33%, USA 15%, and Israel 7.2% are the major arms suppliers to India. The Russia Ukraine war has also been a major factor for diversification of defence supplies by India.
Future Prospects. India-Russia relations remain robust, driven by historical trust, strategic necessity, and shared geopolitical interests and stability. While India’s multi-alignment strategy includes growing ties with the US, its partnership with Russia remains crucial for defence, energy security, and regional stability. Future collaborations in space technology, nuclear energy, and emerging defence sectors will further strengthen this time-tested relationship.
Indo-U.S. Strategic and Security Relationship
The strategic and security relationship between India and the United States has evolved significantly over the past decades, transforming into a multifaceted partnership encompassing defence cooperation, economic engagement, technological collaboration, and shared geopolitical interests. Recent developments and engagements have further solidified this alliance, reflecting a deepening alignment on regional and global issues, being termed as ‘Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership’. The US is a significant economic partner, contributing around 20% of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India since 2001. While India recognizes the strategic importance of engaging with the US, it aims to maintain strategic autonomy in its foreign policy decisions.
In February 2025, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump Summit in Washington, D.C., marking a pivotal moment in the Indo-U.S. Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership. The “U.S.-India COMPACT (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology) for the 21st Century” initiative was launched by both leaders, designed to accelerate cooperation in military partnerships, commerce, and technology. (Asthana,2025)[xxiii]. Both countries decided to increase trade to $500 billion by 2030.
Key Areas of Cooperation. The Indo-US partnership extends across multiple domains, including economic collaboration, security, and technology. Both nations have mutual interests in countering international terrorism, securing the Indian Ocean Region, and addressing cyber security threats. Additionally, the rise of China and shifting global power dynamics have further strengthened Indo-US strategic cooperation.
Defence and Security Cooperation. A cornerstone of the India-U.S. strategic partnership is robust defence cooperation. The two nations have transitioned from a traditional buyer-seller dynamic to collaborative endeavours in defence production and technology sharing. This shift is exemplified by India’s procurement of advanced U.S. defence platforms and discussions surrounding the co-production of military technologies. Notably, President Trump’s offer to share Lockheed Martin’s F-35 stealth fighter with India signifies a strengthening of defence ties and reflects a strategic pivot in U.S. policy towards India.
Additionally, both countries have signed foundational defence agreements, such as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), which facilitate interoperability, real-time intelligence sharing, military logistics support and secure communication systems. The joint production of GE Aerospace’s fighter jet engines in India, the purchase of MQ-9 Reaper drones, and India’s accession to the Artemis Accords for space exploration. Additionally, India and the US have strengthened their commitment to Indo-Pacific security through diplomatic engagements and military collaborations.
Joint military exercises have been pivotal in enhancing operational synergy. The annual ‘Yudh Abhyas’ exercise exemplifies this collaboration, with recent editions involving advanced U.S. military equipment and a significant number of personnel from both sides. Furthermore, the Malabar naval exercises, involving India, the U.S., Japan, and Australia, underscore a shared commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region. Moreover, India conducts more bilateral military exercises with the US than with any other country, reinforcing their defence partnership[xxiv].
Economic and Technological Engagement. Economic ties between India and the U.S. have strengthened considerably, with bilateral trade reaching substantial figures in recent years. Both nations are collaborating in ‘Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET)’ and artificial intelligence, aiming to bolster innovation and secure critical supply chains. The iCET) has been graduated toTRUST (“Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology”) initiative aimed to foster AI innovation, secure technology like semiconductors, quantum tech, biotech and drive strategic cooperation (Asthana,2025)[xxv].
Notable advancements include joint semiconductor manufacturing agreements, the establishment of a Quantum Coordination Mechanism, and collaborations in telecommunications and critical minerals (Rajagopalan, 2023). India and the United States have launched public-private Joint Task Forces. India’s Bharat 6G and the U.S. Next G Alliance will co-lead this public-private research.
Energy cooperation has emerged as a vital component of the bilateral relationship. The U.S. has become a significant energy partner for India, diversifying its energy sources and enhancing energy security. Collaborations in renewable energy technologies further advance India’s clean energy goals.
Geopolitical and Strategic Alignment. The convergence of strategic interests is evident in the shared vision for the Indo-Pacific region. Both countries advocate for a free, open, and rules-based order, countering unilateral actions that threaten regional stability. Asthana (2023) therefore calls India as inescapable bet for USA[xxvi].This alignment is reinforced through platforms like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes Japan and Australia, focusing on maritime security, infrastructure development, and regional connectivity.
Recent high-level engagements have further solidified this partnership. In March 2025, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard visited New Delhi and emphasized President Trump’s commitment to ensuring peace and security through “realism and pragmatism.” Her visit underscored the potential expansion of the India-U.S. partnership, aligning with efforts by both nations to address trade issues and bolster defence ties.
Counterterrorism and Security Collaboration. Counterterrorism remains a critical area of cooperation. Both nations have condemned terrorism in all its forms and emphasized the need for concerted action against terrorist networks. India has formally requested the U.S. to designate the Sikh separatist group Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) as a terrorist organization, reflecting collaborative efforts to address security concerns.
Challenges and Future Prospects. Despite significant progress, challenges persist in areas such as trade imbalances, regulatory barriers, and differing perspectives on global issues. India’s defence ties with Russia, including its procurement of S-400 missile systems, leading to potential sanctions under the CAATSA Act. Additionally, US actions, such as sanctions on Iran and Russia, have adversely impacted India’s energy security and strategic interests.
However, both nations have demonstrated resilience and a willingness to engage in constructive dialogue to resolve differences. The institutionalization of mechanisms like the Strategic Trade Dialogue aims to address export control issues and facilitate technology transfers, further strengthening the defence industrial partnership.
Looking ahead, the India-U.S. strategic and security relationship is poised for further expansion. Continued collaboration in defence, technology, energy, and regional security is expected to enhance mutual capabilities and contribute to global stability. The shared commitment to democratic values, economic growth, and a rules-based international order forms the foundation of this enduring partnership.
The India-U.S. strategic and security relationship has evolved into a comprehensive partnership characterized by deepening defence cooperation, robust economic ties, technological collaboration, and aligned geopolitical interests. Recent engagements and agreements reflect a mutual commitment to addressing regional and global challenges, underscoring the significance of this bilateral relationship in the contemporary international landscape.
Conclusion
South Asia remains one of the most geopolitically significant yet volatile regions, marked by long-standing security challenges, economic disparities, and regional rivalries. India’s strategic positioning within this dynamic environment demands a multidimensional security approach. While regional organizations like SAARC and BIMSTEC offer frameworks for cooperation, their effectiveness is hampered by political conflicts and institutional weaknesses. India must leverage its partnerships with global powers while maintaining strategic autonomy to safeguard its national interests. The Indo-Russian relationship, rooted in historical trust, continues to be vital in the defence and energy sectors, while the Indo-U.S. partnership has grown significantly, focusing on security cooperation, advanced technology sharing, and Indo-Pacific stability. However, India’s long-term security requires continued investment in self-reliance through initiatives like “Atmanirbhar Bharat” in defence manufacturing and cyber security. Additionally, managing border tensions with China and Pakistan remains a top priority, demanding a mix of military preparedness and diplomatic engagements. As global geopolitical shifts intensify with the rise of China and the re-emergence of Cold War-era rivalries, India must proactively shape regional security frameworks rather than reacting to crises. A comprehensive strategy integrating military modernization, regional diplomacy, and technological advancements will be essential to India’s emergence as a global power. The future of South Asian security lies in collaborative yet pragmatic approaches that balance national sovereignty with
[i] Asthana, S B (2025), “Trump’s Strategic Twist in the Ukraine War: A Path to Resolution or New Challenges for Stakeholders?”, Modern diplomacy, 16 March, 2025, [online web] Accessed on 17 March 2025, URL: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/03/16/trumps-strategic-twist-in-the-ukraine-war-a-path-to-resolution-or-new-challenges-for-stakeholders/.
[ii] Mohan, Virain (2021), “Changing Political Dynamics in South Asia: The Belt and Road Initiative and Its Effects on Indian Regional Hegemony”, Journal of Indo Pacific Affairs, Air university AU, 25 August 2021, , [online web] Accessed on 18 March 2025, URL: https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/2743694/changing-political-dynamics-in-south-asia-the-belt-and-road-initiative-and-its/.
[iii] Upadhyaya, Ujjwal(2024), Increasing Radicalisation in Bangladesh and its Impact on India’s National Security, Journal of Centre of Joint Warfare Studies, 24 June 2024, [online web] Accessed on 18 March 2025, URL: https://cenjows.in/increasing-radicalisation-in-bangladesh-and-its-impact-on-indias-national-security/.
[iv] Mcleary, Paul (2024), “Pentagon report: China to build 1,000 nukes by 2030”, Politico, 18 December,2024, [online web] Accessed on 18 March 2025, URL: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/18/pentagon-report-china-nuclear-weapons-00195031.
[v] Dash, K. C. (2008). “Regionalism in South Asia: Negotiating Cooperation, Institutional Structures”. Routledge. 2008.
[vi] Jaiswal and Dixit (2022), “A study on Trends and Prospects of Trade among SAARC nations” International Journal for Novel Research and Development (IJNRD), Volume 7, Issue 4, p385-393, April 2022, ISSN: 2456-4184.
[vii] BIMSTEC (2022). 5th BIMSTEC Summit Report. Dhaka: BIMSTEC Secretariat.
[viii] Ibid
[ix] Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), India (2022). BIMSTEC and India’s Regional Strategy. Government of India.
[x] BIMSTEC Secretariat, 2024, 6th BIMSTEC Summit Report. Dhaka: BIMSTEC Secretariat.
[xi] Mohan, C. (2021). India’s Act East Policy and BIMSTEC’s Strategic Role. Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, 16(2), 45-63.
[xii] Kumar, R. (2021). Institutional Challenges in BIMSTEC: An Assessment. South Asian Studies Journal, 25(1), 78-95.
[xiii] IORA Secretariat. (2023). Indian Ocean Rim Association Annual Report.
[xiv] ASEAN Secretariat. (2023). ASEAN-IORA Memorandum of Understanding on Regional Cooperation.
[xv] IORA Secretariat. (2023), op cit.
[xvi] Aris, S. (2013). “Eurasian Regionalism: The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation”. Palgrave Macmillan, New York, Revised edition, 2013.
[xvii] Kavalski, E. (2010). “The New Central Asia: The Regional Impact of International Actors”. World Scientific, 2010.
[xviii] Asthana (2018), “Is Strategic Balancing a ‘New Normal’ in Interlinked World?”, Modern Diplomacy World, 01 December,2018, [online web] Accessed on 17 March 2025, URL: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2018/12/01/is-strategic-balancing-a-new-normal-in-interlinked-world/.
[xix] Government of India (2021), “Year End Review – 2021 of Ministry of Defence”, 2021, [online web] Accessed on 22 March 2025, URL:https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1786640.
[xx] Government of India, Ministry of Defence (2023) “MANUFACTURING OF AK-203 ASSAULT RIFLES”
13 February, 2023, [online web] Accessed on 22 March 2025,URL: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1898817.
[xxi] Kapoor, Nivedita (2021), “Russia and the Future of the Arctic”, Observer Research Foundation, Occasional paper, 28 October 2021, [online web] Accessed on 22 March 2025, URL: https://www.orfonline.org/research/russia-and-the-future-of-the-arctic.
[xxii] Kapoor,Nivedita (2023), “Sino–Russian Partnership in the ‘Asian Supercomplex’: Choices and Challenges for India”, SAGE Journals, Volume 15 Issue 2, 02 November,2023, [online web] Accessed on 22 March 2025, URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/18793665231212573?icid=int.sj-full-text.similar-articles.6.
[xxiii] Asthana, S B (2025), “Modi-Trump Summit 2025: Paving a New Era of Indo-US Partnership Amidst Global Turbulence”, Hastkshep, Rashtriya Sahara, Print edition, 22 February, 2025.
[xxiv] US Congressional Research Service (2024), “India-U.S.: Major Arms Transfers and Military Exercises”, In Focus, 05 December, 2024.
[xxv] Asthana (2025), Op cit.
[xxvi] Asthana (2023), “Cold War 2.0: India – An Inescapable Bet For The USA”. Chanakya Forum, 12 June 2023, [online web] Accessed on 22 March 2025, URL: https://chanakyaforum.com/cold-war-2-0-india-an-inescapable-bet-for-the-usa/
Major General (Dr) S B Asthana
(The views expressed are personal views of the author, who retains the copy right. The author is a Globally acknowledged Strategic and Security Analyst, He can be reached at Facebook and LinkedIn as Shashi Asthana, @asthana_shashi on twitter, and personnel site https://asthanawrites.org/ email shashiasthana29@gmail.comLinkedIn Profile www.linkedin.com/in/shashi-asthana-4b3801a6. Youtube link https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCl50YRTBrOCVIxDtHfhvQDQ?view_as=subscriber
Asthana Writes 